في أول رسالة بعد عمل التغيرات على الموقع أردت أن أتحدث عن موضوع له علاقة بشعار الموقع. الBubble
سمعنا بداية العام جملة “انفجرت فقاعة الرهن العقاري في امريكا”"وسمعنا قبلها “سوق الاسهم السعودية كان فقاعة انتفخت فوق طاقتها”.كلمه فقاعة أو بالونة أو bubble اقتحمت قاموس الثقافة العامه.أصبحت الاجابة المختصرة التي تبرر أي كارثه اقتصادية تحدث. “اففففففف. انهارت بورصة روسيا!ايش اللي صار؟” فتسمع الاجابة بكل ثقة من شخص في طرف الغرفة “هادي كانت bubble يا حبيبي و انفقعت” ثم يهز كل الحضور رؤسهم بالموافقة
ما أريد أن اتحدث معك عنه اليوم هو هذه الbubblesوكيف يمكنك أن تنظر لها بشكل مختلف يجعلك ترى فيها جانب ايجابي يغفله الكثيرين. من ينتبه له و يستعد ليستفيد منه قد يحقق فوائد خيالية. حتى اعرض لك هذا الأمر دعنا نعود بالتاريخ لثلاثة من أشهر الBubblesوالتي انفجرت:
the Gold rush Bubble. امريكا، قبل حوالي ٢٠٠ سنه
عاد رجال من الغرب الأمريكي الموحش محملين بالذهب. فصاحوا بين الناس “GOLD! GOLD” و أكدوا أن جنوب غربي البلاد مليء بالذهب. صدقهم البعض، فذهبوا و جربوا فعادوا أيضا بنفس النتائج. عندها هوس الكل وذهبوا خلف حلم الذهب
تعرفون هذا الرجل؟
مسكين. فقد كان ممن هوس وأصابه سعار الذهب. لم يستفد سوى الوقوع في مشاكل مع Bugs Bunny وذلك جراء حفره و تفجيره في المناجم. لم يكن وحده، ترك كل الناس أعمالهم و أملاكهم و أهلهم و ذهبوا يبحثو اعن الذهب. ضحّى الناس بكل شئ و استثمروا كل أملاكهم و جهدهم. حتى ظهرت الحقيقه المرة وهي أن كميات الذهب الحقيقية أقل بكثير مما توقع الناس. فانفجرت ال bubble وعاد أغلب الناس بخفي حنين.
نتيجه انفجار هذه الBubble كانت خسارة و إفلاس لشريحة ضخمة من الشعب.لكن النتيجة الايجابية غير المتوقعه كانت بناء الغرب الأمريكي الموحش في زمن قياسي! فمع ثورة البحث عن الذهب استثمر الكثير في الغرب لخدمة الباحثين عن الذهب هؤلاء. فنادق، مزارع، محلات، بيوت، وغيرها من أمور البنية التحتية. وقد بقيت بعدما غادروا فشغلها غيرهم. لليوم، هناك قرى و معالم من تلك الطفرة في ولايات الجنوب الغربي الأمريكي. و قد تحولت ولاياته من أجزاء موحشه لأحدى أكثر أجزاء أمريكا كثافة سكانية و غِِنى.
the Rail road Rush Bubble أمريكا, قبل حوالي ١٠٠ سنة
إليك صديق اخر ل bugs bunny
هو الآخر هوس بحمى السكة الحديد في بعض الحلقات. وكان يبنيها فوق جحر الأرنب و تبدأ المشاكل. هوس عندها الامريكان ببناء أعظم سكة حديد عرفتها البشرية. تربط كل أركان دولتهم الشاسعة. الكل هوس بهذا الأمر إما بالاستثمار فيه أو بالعمل فيه.ما أن شارفوا على الانتهاء منها إلا وجاءت نكسة العشرينيات و الثلاثينيات المعروفة ب the great depression.
نتيجة انفجار الbubble: توقف كل شئ. و لم تعد السكة الحديدة بالمردود و الأرباح التي أمِل فيها الناس و الدولة. و دخلت أمريكا في فقر. لكن كانت النتيجة الايجابية غير المتوقعة: هي بناء السكة! و لليوم عز أمريكا و احد أهم مصادر دعم حركتهم في المواصلات و النقل هي قطاراتهم.
the’”.com” stock bubbleفي أمريكا في التسعينيات
تذكرها صح؟ حصلت قبل حوالي عشر سنوات أوأقل عندما انتفخ سوق الاسهم الامريكي بسبب هوس الكل بالاستثمار في مجال التكنولوجيا و الانترنت. البعض اشترى أسهماً في شركات بأضعاف ما تستحق. و الآخرين انشاؤا الشركات و سعو نحو الاكتتاب السريع. عندها انفجرت ال bubble و هوى مؤشر السوق و أسعار اسهم شركات ال.com للحضيض
نتيجه انفجار ال bubble خسر المساهمين، و أفلس المستثمرين. وأغلقت مئأت الشركات المتوسطة و الصغيرة و اهتزت الكبيرة. لكن كانت النتيجة الايجابية غير المتوقعة هي كما ذكرهاThomas freedmanبناء البنية التحتية المعلوماتية في العالم! فقد استثمر الكثير أثناء “انتفاخ” هذه الفقاعة في مجال التقنية و الانترنت مما مكّن للانترنت أن تتوسع بهذا الشكل الرهيب في السنوات الأخيرة. فمدت الكيابل تحت البحار و بين القارات. و بنيت مدن تقنية تعتبر مراكز لإدارة هذه الشبكة.
الخلاصة. أنه كلما “تنفقع” أو تنفجر bubble تخلف ورائها فرص استثمارية جديدة غير متوقعة. من استثمر فيها استفاد.
الآن فكر في الbubbles التي حولك و التي تتوقع (لا سمح الله) أنها قد تنفجر. و كلما ترى bubble انفجرت أو قاربت أو حتى هناك احتمال بسيط لحدوث ذلك، سواء كنت ستتضرر أو لاً، اسأل نفسك هذين السؤالين:
1. مالفرصة او الخير الذي سيأتي بسبب انفجار هذه الbubble
2. كيف يمكنني ان استغل هذه الفرصة؟ أو أن أحمي نفسي على الاقل؟
هناك أمثلة لbubbles انفجرت أو قاربت أو حتى هناك احتمال بسيط (لا سمح الله) أن تنفجر تستطيع أن تفكر فيها مثل: الاسهم السعودية، سوق العقار في الإمارات. تفصيل الثياب و أقمشته (يقال إن أرباحهم الموسم الماضي كانت ضعيفة)، القنوات الفضائية على النايل سات و عرب سات ( تزيد بالرغم من تحقيقها للخسائر.)، Facebook (ممكن أن تنفجر فقاعته قريباً). المسلسلات التركية. المعسل (قرار وزاري او انتشار مرض الكبد الوبائي أو مرض معدي آخر لا سمح الله بين المعسلين قد يفقع bubble هذه الصناعة و سوقها بين عشية و ضحاها)
إذا كنت عاقل و ايجابي فأنت تستوعب إحتمالية انفجار أي bubble في أي لحظة. في نفس الوقت، يمكن أن يتأخر أو حتى لا يحدث ذلك. لذا لا يجب أن تمتنع من الدخول في السوق و الاستفادة منه. لكن ليس بسذاجة ومخاطرة كما فعلت شخصيات warner brother السابق ذكرها
مثال للتعامل مع Bubbles لم تنفقع (و ان شاء الله لا يحدث لها شئ):
الكل يتحدث عن الهوس ببناء المولات في المملكة. البعض يقول أننا لا زلنا بعيدين عن الوصول لعدد المولات المنطقي في البلد. وأن شعبيتها و إرتفاع ايجاراتها سيستمر. و البعض يختلف و يتوقع أن bubble المولات تشارف علي الانفجار فإن تزايدها يفوق حاجة البلاد. فيعتقد أن أغلبها سيصبح مهجورا ًبعدما كان لهم “شنه و رنه” و البقية ستصارع لتشغل نفسها و تقنع المستأجر أن يبقى.
من الصح و من الخطأ؟ كمحللين الاثنين صح. أما كمستثمرين عقلاء فكلاهما قد يكونا على بعيدين عن الصواب
عندما يكون هناك احتمال انفجار لأي bubble فلا تستثمر فيها. فإذا كنت ممن يرون الخطر في المولات فلا تشتري أو تبني مول. و لا تعمل في شركه تمتلك و تدير مولات. في نفس الوقت، فكر في استغلال الإقبال الرهيب على المولات في مشروعك أو استثمارك. لكن ليس كمالك للمول بل كمستأجر. و كمستأجر خفيف أيضاً. مرتبط بعقود تتركك خفيف بحيث لو انفجرت الbubble تكون خسارتك مقبولة و غير مؤثرة مقارنه بالربح الذي حققته خلال التشغيل. و الأهم من ذلك أن يكون مشروعك هو من المشاريع الذي يمكنه أن يعيش خارج المول لو انهارت المولات. وإلا ستحتاج أن تبحث عن مصدر دخل جديد من الصفر.
مثال للتعامل مع Bubbles اتنفقعت (و ان شاء الله ترجع تنتعش):
كما قلنا، انه كلما تفقع bubble تخلف ورائها فرص استثمارية جديدة غير متوقعة. سأعطيك نتيجه ايجابيه فرعية خلفتها اليوم bubble الاسهم. خلفت ورائها جيل كامل بين الخمسين و الستين تعلم الانترنت. هذا الجيل لم يكن ليتعلمه و كان سيموت بدون ان يستخدم الانترنت بشكل موسع لولا تداول الاسهم.
إذن أنت لديك اليوم مئات الألوف من الرجال الذين تعلموا استخدام الانترنت في فترة قياسية. تقريباً فجأة. ولكن فقط ليفعلوا شئ واحد: التداول.
سأعطيك فكرة مجنونة واحده لتستفيد من هذا الأمر: مجلة الكترونية خاصة بالرجال فوق الخمسين. تقدم الثقافة، الاجتماعيات، الفن وغيرها من المواضيع. رسالة الترحيب في المجلة هي“ايش صار في الدنيا!! بدل فيروز بيسمعوا سعد الصغّير. و بدل اسماعيل يس محمد سعد. الشباب في الشارع بيتكلموا بلغة غريبة. و البرامج في التلفزيون ماني قادرأفهمها. و اذا أسأل ولدي أو حفيدتي يتعاملو معايا كأني معاق ذهنياً. ما طفشت؟ أنا شخصيا طفشت. وحسيت أني لوحدي في هذه الدنيا. فعملت هادي المجله عشان العاقلين اللي زيّ و زيك. و نسيبلهم الجمل بما حمل”
طبعاً لو نجحت المجلة فستستطيع تحقيق دخل رهيب من دعايات متخصصة لمنتجات مثل الفيتامينات. عيادات عظام. منتجعات وعيون حارة للعلاج الطبيعي في دولة التشيك أشرطة فريد الاطرش، شقق مجاورة للحرم في رمضان. صبغات الشعر. وغيرها من المنتجات المتخصصه التي ستقدر تجميعك لهذا العدد من هذه الفئة المهمة اقتصادياً.
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November 22nd, 2009 at 6:06 am
رائع ومبدع كالعاده من الجميل ان نقرأ مقالات بعيده عن الاحباط والتشنج..
مبروك اللوك الجديد
November 22nd, 2009 at 4:27 pm
شكرا يا سارة
November 22nd, 2009 at 7:22 pm
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Take care Brother
Your brother Moammar
November 22nd, 2009 at 9:39 pm
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November 23rd, 2009 at 12:37 am
Glad you are back
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mabrook for the new look
November 23rd, 2009 at 9:34 am
مزيد من الفقاعات لو سمحت!!!!!!!!!!!!
congratulations, speed it please
November 23rd, 2009 at 9:37 am
شكرا يا معمر وانا اللي لي كل الشرف بمعرفتك يا صديقي العزيز.
شكرا يا ميمي و يا رامي و سنحاول يا يحيى بقدر الامكان
November 23rd, 2009 at 5:22 pm
شكرا لما تتحفنا به من أفكار و قرأت. مبروك النيولوك
November 24th, 2009 at 9:14 am
الله يبارك فيك يا عصام
November 24th, 2009 at 7:14 pm
مبدع كعادتك اخ ياسر،،، و مع الحلة و الاطلالة الجديدة، تتفتق افكار جديدة،، فقاعات إثر فقاعات من الافكار، و وراء كل فقاعة تنفجر ترى اثراًلطيفاً لفكرة حجزها جدار الفقاعة الرقيق،،،
اذكر فيما اذكر من “الفقاقيع” التي انفجرت، فقاعة “المطاعم السريعة” و “البطيئة” ايضاً و ان كان سبب انفجارها لا يعود لغلاء اسعارها الذي يصل حد الغبن الفاحش في بعض الحالات،و انما لتدني جودتها و مستوى الخدمة المقدم فيها،،،
و مع ذلك بقيت مستمرة،، سبحان الله، بعض الفقاقيع لا تنفجر قبل ان تترك ورائها ارثا “فقاعياً” يعيد الكـّرة، المرة تلو الاخرى،،،
ربما تنطبق قاعدة عمتي الكبرى -رحمها الله- الذي اذكر انها كانت دوماً تقول:
مهما خربت الدنيا، فالناس تستمر في الاكل و الشرب و اللبس و المرض،، و خذ من ذلك فقاعات الى يوم الدين! لن يتوقف عمل المطاعم، و لا المتاجر او المولات ان ارتبطت بالطعام و الشراب و اللباس، و لا المستشفيات، و ان مرت بصعود او هبوط بين الفينة و الاخرى،،،
اسف للاطالة،، و اتمنى ان تتحفنا على الدوام بأفكارك اخ ياسر
و سررت بقراءة مقالاتك فعلا
اخوك
د.طارق عيسى
الاردن
December 5th, 2009 at 3:10 pm
الله يسعدك يا شيخ انا من اشد المعجبين بمقالاتك و باستناها بفارغ الصبر.كل مأشوف اسمك فى inbox ابتسم واشيلها على جنب علشان اقرأها بمزاج عشان استمتع بها زى ما تستمتع بالحلى في نهايه الوجبة.
كل الناس عندها عينان الى انت ماشأالله عندك اكثر مت عينان لانك ماشأالله تبارك الله بتشوف حاجات محدبيشوفها غيرك وبعدين تقوم بتحليلهابمنتهاالبساطة والسهوله لدرجةانو اخس نفسي غبي.
خليناندخل في مقال اليوم المقال كالعادة فوق الفظيع على رأي اخوانا المصرين.
ياريت اكون موضوع المقال الجى عن مطر جدة انا متأكد انك حتشوف الوضع من جه غير متوقعة
واخيرا ابغى اعطيك نك نيم “العبقري”
لان الفكرةالعبقريه لمن تسمعهاتسأل نفسك كيف ماجات على بالي
وهو الاحساس الى احسة بعدمااقراء مقالاتك
وائل
December 5th, 2009 at 3:50 pm
شكرا يا د. طارق, ولعل اجابة تسؤلاتك هي في قاعدة عمتك الحكيمة رحمها الله.
شكرا يا وائل على كلامك الجميل. ام مصر ان ما اكتبه هنا هو موجود اصلا في اذهان كل او اغلب من يقراءه. وهو ليس جديد. الفرق انني اخذ الوقت لاجمعه و احاول ان اضع النقاط فوق الحروف. اول مرة احد يشبهني بالحلويات. اعجبني الموضوع
December 6th, 2009 at 10:13 am
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